Desertification or "re-greening": Adaptation lessons learned in coping with late 20th century drought in West Africa
(1) Improve understanding of historical trends in the sub-seasonal “character of precipitation”, their relation to oceanic influence, and to expectation from warming
(2) Build capacity in ACMAD and AGRHYMET to produce seasonal predictions based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble [NMME], defining a standard operating procedure to post-process and tailor information to user needs
(3) Update the regional climate change perspective to explicitly connect adaptation to climate change, disaster risk reduction and sustainable land management
OUTCOMES: (1) Robust improvement in skillful lead time of Sahel-wide rainfall in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME) of dynamical models (2) Presentation of research results in the relevant regional climate outlook forum through engagement with project partners, most notably the Regional Center for Agro-Hydro-Meteorology (AGRHYMET) (3) Development of IRI Data Library-based Maprooms to explore the potential predictability of the sub-seasonal character of rainfall, based on ENACTS (4) Assessment of the sub-seasonal predictability of early-season dry spells in the ECMWF S2S dynamical prediction system of potential relevance to the prediction of rainy season onset.