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Earth Institute Research Projects

Collaborative Research: The impact of stratospheric ozone depletion/recovery on Antarctic climate

Lead PI: Michael Previdi , Lorenzo Polvani Dr. Beate Gertrud Liepert

Unit Affiliation: Ocean & Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

January 2010 - April 2014
Inactive
Antarctica ; Southern Ocean
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: This project focuses on examining the role of stratospheric ozone depletion in late 20th century Antarctic climate change, and will also assess the impact of ozone recovery in the 21st century. Specifically, the goals are to 1) use observational datasets to estimate “climate response kernels”, which describe quantitatively the changes in different climate parameters resulting from stratospheric ozone changes; 2) compare the kernels derived from observations to modeling experiments in which stratospheric ozone is the only time-varying forcing; and 3) develop 21st century climate change projections for the Antarctic based on models that realistically simulate past changes in climate associated with ozone depletion.

OUTCOMES: The project represents the most systematic investigation to date of the effects of anthropogenic ozone depletion and recovery on Antarctic climate, and will therefore contribute significantly to our understanding of the causes of past and future climate change in the region. It will also lead to more confident climate change projections by ensuring that these projections are based on models that correctly simulate the response to stratospheric ozone forcing.

SPONSOR:

National Science Foundation (NSF)

FUNDED AMOUNT:

$524,999

EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS:

Northwest Research Associates

WEBSITE:

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0944063&HistoricalAwards=false

PUBLICATIONS:

1) L.M. Polvani, M. Previdi and C. Deser: Large cancellation, due to ozone recovery, of future Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation trends, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04707 (2011) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+etal-GRL-2011.pdf);

2) M. Previdi and L.M. Polvani: Comment on "Tropospheric temperature response to stratospheric ozone recovery in the 21st century" by Hu et al. (2011), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 4893-4896 (2012) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/previdi+polvani-ACP-2012.pdf);

3) K.M. Smith, L.M. Polvani and D.R. Marsh: Mitigation of 21st century Antarctic sea ice loss by stratospheric ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20701 (2012) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/smith+polvani+marsh-GRL-2012.pdf);

4) L.M. Polvani and K.L. Smith: Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3195-3199 (2013) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+smith-GRL-2013.pdf);

5) M. Previdi, K.L. Smith and L.M. Polvani: The Antarctic atmospheric energy budget. Part I: Climatology and intraseasonal-to-interannual variability, J. Climate, 26, 6406-6418 (2013) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/previdi+smith+polvani-JCLIM-2013.pdf);

6) K.L. Smith, M. Previdi and L.M. Polvani: The Antarctic atmospheric energy budget. Part II: The Effect of Ozone Depletion and its Projected Recovery, J. Climate, 26, 9729-9744 (2013) (http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/smith+previdi+polvani-JCLIM-2013.pdf)

KEYWORDS

ozone hole stratosphere antarctic climate change climate models radiative forcing

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate