Earth Institute Research Projects

Climate Change, Human Mobility, and Securing Resilience-Impact of Climate Change on Population Distribution

Lead PI: Dr. Alexander de Sherbinin

Unit Affiliation: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN)

January 2017 - February 2018
Africa ; Latin America ; South Asia ; Mexico ; Ethiopia ; Bangladesh
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The project developed a population gravity model to estimate the number of climate migrants out to 2050 under different emissions scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. The model projects population distributions with and without climate impacts on the crop and water sectors; differences are assumed to be owing to migration. The results were published in the World Bank's Groundswell report (2018).

OUTCOMES: The main result was a policy-oriented report and country consultations in Ethiopia, Mexico and Bangladesh. The report is available at


World Bank




CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)


Rigaud, K.K., A. de Sherbinin, B. Jones, J. Bergmann, V. Clement, K. Ober, J. Schewe, S. Adamo, B. McCusker, S. Heuser, and A. Midgley. 2018. Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration. Washington DC: World Bank.

DATASETS: The climate-migration projections will be disseminated by the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), hosted by CIESIN at the Earth Institute


climate change


Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate