Best Practices for Estimating Forecast Uncertinity in Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions
- Lead PI: Dr. Lisa M. Goddard
Unit Affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
- August 2012 - July 2016
- Project Type: Research
DESCRIPTION: Propose a systematic framework to recalibrate seasional-to-decadal predictions to yield estimates of forecast uncertainty that can be used to inform decisions such as planning and risk management across these timescales.
OUTCOMES: Create guidance to allow for informed decisions on trade-offs between frequency and number of historical hindcasts, ensemble sizes, and complexity of recalibration schemes.