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Earth Institute Research Projects

Best Practices for Estimating Forecast Uncertinity in Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions

Lead PI: Dr. Lisa Goddard

Unit Affiliation: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)

August 2012 - July 2016
Inactive
Global
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: Propose a systematic framework to recalibrate seasional-to-decadal predictions to yield estimates of forecast uncertainty that can be used to inform decisions such as planning and risk management across these timescales.

OUTCOMES: Create guidance to allow for informed decisions on trade-offs between frequency and number of historical hindcasts, ensemble sizes, and complexity of recalibration schemes.

SPONSOR:

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce

FUNDED AMOUNT:

$205,000

RESEARCH TEAM:

Simon Mason, Mike Bell

EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS:

University of Exeter

KEYWORDS

seasonal-to-decadal prediction climate and society adaptation risk management climate change forecasting

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate