Sensitivity of Climate Variability to Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers during the Last Millennium
DESCRIPTION: An ensemble of millennial‐length simulations with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM (ModelE) is proposed to identify regional and temporal climate ―fingerprints from potentially important forcing mechanisms. In addition, the model's Earth System components (chemistry, aerosols, water isotopes, and wetland methane emissions) will be included in time ‐slices of particular interest – such as the early medieval (MT, 1000‐1200) or Maunder Minimum (MM, 1550‐1750). We propose a suite of coupled atmosphere‐ocean model experiments from 850 AD to 1850. The proposed experiments will be used to determine the magnitude of the predictable signal at regional scales over multi‐centennial periods.
OUTCOMES: This project will allow identification, comparison and improved quantification of major climate forcings. Comparison of model and proxy records will test model‐simulated mechanisms while the model in turn provides insight into factors contributing to proxy variability. The addition of potentially important forcing mechanisms will enable a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate sensitivity.