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Earth Institute Research Projects

Quantifying Risks From Changing U.S. PM2.5 Distributions Due to Climate Variability and Warming with Large Multi-Model Ensembles and High-Resolution Downscaling

Lead PI: Arlene Fiore

Unit Affiliation: Ocean & Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

January 2016 - December 2020
Active
North America ; United States
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The overarching goal of our project is to quantify changes in air pollution meteorology, and the resulting PM2.5 distributions in U.S. surface air, in order to estimate time-evolving air pollution risks over the next five decades.

OUTCOMES: We are conducting dynamical downscaling targeting years of particular interest for regional fine particulate matter over the U.S.A. and working to place these simulated results in the context of a larger statistical distribution provided by global chemistry-climate models, to develop a more probabilistic framework for air quality planning in light of meteorological variability and change

SPONSOR:

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

FUNDED AMOUNT:

$788,625

RESEARCH TEAM:

Mike Previdi

EXTERNAL COLLABORATORS:

University of North Carolina Chapel Hill

PUBLICATIONS:

Guo, J. J., Fiore, A. M., Murray, L. T., Jaffe, D. A., Schnell, J. L., Moore, T., and Milly, G. (2018), Average versus high surface ozone levels over the continental U.S.A.: Model bias, background influences, and interannual variability, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 12123-12140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12123-2018.

Rieder, H. E., Fiore, A. M., Clifton, O. E., Correa, G., Horowitz, L. W. and Naik, V. (2018), Combining model projections with site-level observations to estimate changes in distributions and seasonality of ozone in surface air over the U.S.A, Atmospheric Environment, 193, 302-315, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.07.042.

Chen, K., A.M. Fiore, R. Chen, L. Jiang, B. Jones, A. Schneider, A. Peters, J. Bi, H. Kan, P.L. Kinney (2018), Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study, PLoS Med 15(7): e1002598, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002598.
Nora Rose Mascioli, 2018, Impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on regional climate: extreme events, stagnation, and the United States warming hole, Columbia University Academic Commons, https://doi.org/10.7916/D8X368FV.

Lin, M. Y., L.W. Horowitz, R. Payton, A.M. Fiore, G. Tonnesen (2017), US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980-2014: Quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 2943-2970, doi:10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017.

Mascioli, N., A.M. Fiore, M. Previdi, M. Ting (2017), Timing and seasonality of the United States “warming hole”, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 034008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef4.

Westervelt, D.M., L.W. Horowitz, V. Naik, A.P.K. Tai, A.M. Fiore, and D.L. Mauzerall (2016), Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model, Atmos. Environ., 1352-2310, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.07.040.

KEYWORDS

climate warming global chemistry-climate models particulate matter air pollution anthropogenic emissions climate variability natural emissions dynamical downscaling

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate