Earth Institute Research Projects

Predicting Extreme US Air Pollution Events

Lead PI: Arlene Fiore

Unit Affiliation: Ocean & Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO)

June 2012 - May 2016
North America
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: By analyzing observations and a suite of model simulations, we identify and characterize changes in extreme U.S. pollution (ozone and particulate matter) events and some of their underlying drivers, over the past several decades as well as for a range of future climate and emission scenarios.


Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)




Lorenzo Polvani


Mascioli, N., A.M. Fiore, M. Previdi, M. Ting (2016b), Timing and seasonality of the United States “warming hole”, submitted to Environ. Res. Lett.

Westervelt, D.M., L.W. Horowitz, V. Naik, A.P.K. Tai, A.M. Fiore, and D.L. Mauzerall (2016), Quantifying PM2.5-meteorology sensitivities in a global climate model, Atmos. Environ., 1352-2310,

Barnes, E.A., A.M. Fiore, L.W. Horowitz (2016), Detection of trends in surface ozone in the presence of climate variability, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 6112-6129, doi: 10.1002/2015JD024397.

Mascioli, N., A.M. Fiore, M. Previdi, G. Correa (2016a), Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the United States: Quantifying the Responses to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases, Journal of Climate, 29, 7, 2689-2701, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0478.1.

Fiore, A.M., V. Naik, E.M. Leibensperger (2015), A summary of the 45th A&WMA Critical Review: Air quality and climate connections, Environmental Manager (EM), June, 31-35.

Fiore, A.M., Naik, V., Leibensperger, E.M. (2015), 2015 Annual A&WMA Critical Review: Air Quality and Climate Connections; J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc., 65 (6), 645-685.

Rieder, H. E., A. M. Fiore, L. W. Horowitz, and V. Naik (2015), Projecting policy-relevant metrics for high summertime ozone pollution events over the eastern United States due to climate and emission changes during the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JD022303.

Clifton, O. E., A. M. Fiore, G. Correa, L. W. Horowitz, and V. Naik (2014), Twenty-first century reversal of the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the northeastern United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 7343–7350, doi:10.1002/2014GL061378.

Rieder, H., A.M. Fiore, L.M. Polvani, J.-F. Lamarque, Y. Fang (2013), Changes in the frequency and return level of high ozone pollution events over the Eastern United States following emission controls, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014012.

Turner, A. J., A.M. Fiore, L.W. Horowitz, and M. Bauer (2013): Summertime cyclones over the Great Lakes Storm Track from 1860–2100: variability, trends, and association with ozone pollution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 565–578, doi:10.5194/acp-13-565-2013.

Fang, Y., A.M. Fiore, J.-F. Lamarque, L.W. Horowitz, M. Lin (2013), Using synthetic tracers as a proxy for summertime PM2.5 air quality over the Northeastern United States in physical climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett, 40, doi: 10.1002/grl.50162.

Barnes, E.A., and A.M. Fiore (2013), Surface ozone variability and the jet position: Implications for projecting future air quality, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50411.


models ozone aerosols particulate matter air pollution sustainability air quality climate change hazards and risk reduction climate


Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate