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Earth Institute Research Projects

Integration of AgMIP Results for the Development of Agricultural Response Functions for PNNL Models - Phase 3

Lead PI: Dr. Carolyn Zehnder Mutter

Unit Affiliation: Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR)

October 2018 - December 2019
Inactive
Global ; New York City, NY ; New York
Project Type: Research

DESCRIPTION: The Columbia University/Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Team[1] will partner with researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI) to utilize cutting-edge agricultural modeling results in the developement of agricultural response functions ('Persephone') that will enable new functionality and internal dynamics within JGCRI's GCAM model. The team will then work with JGCRI to utilize a version of GCAM that includes Persephone in order to demonstrate important feedback loops and unintended consequences in the interaction of agricultural systems, other societal sectors, and the natural environment.

OUTCOMES: Directly coupling crop models into GCAM is not practical given that their high computational expense would reduce the nimbleness of GCAM as a tool, require a broad new array of input and configuration data to curate, and tie GCAM to a single crop model in spite of considerable uncertainty across current models. AgMIP and JGCRI have therefore turned to the development of crop response functions determined through crop model emulators, which offers a computationally-efficient option that is also capable of integrating multiple crop models and adapting to different farm systems. A peer-reviewed publication produced as an element of the AgMIP/JGCRI collaboration further describes the types of analysis possible in coupling agricultural responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) like GCAM (Ruane et al., 2017).

SPONSOR:

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

ORIGINATING SPONSOR:

Department of Energy

FUNDED AMOUNT:

$61,772

PUBLICATIONS:

*Snyder, A., Calvin, K.V., Phillips, M. and Ruane, A.C., 2019. A crop yield change emulator for use in GCAM and similar models: Persephone v1.0. Geoscientific Model Development, 12, 1319-1350. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1319-2019 *Snyder, A., A.C. Ruane, K. Calvin, and M. Phillips (in development): Implementation of Persephone v1.0 crop emulators for integrated assessment of climate and land use response in the Global Change Assessment Model.

DATASETS: Contact alexander.c.ruane@nasa.gov, 212-678-5640

KEYWORDS

agricultural response global change assessment climate emuilators

THEMES

Modeling and Adapting to Future Climate