Retrospective predictions of El Niño and La Niña in the past 148 yr. ABOVE, LEFT: Time series of SST anomalies averaged in the NINO3.4 region (5° S–5° N, 120–170° W). The red curve is monthly analysis of ref. 12 and the blue curve is the LDEO5 prediction at 6-month lead. ABOVE, RIGHT: Composite El Niño and La Niña from 24 warm events and 23 cold events. Top panels are observations, and the rest are predictions at different lead times. The colour bar shows the range of SST anomalies in degrees Celsius. © Nature Publishing Group
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