Earth Institute News Archive
posted 12/15/03
Use
Climate Prediction Science to Mitigate Disaster, Says Cane
Political will is as important as predictive capability
Mark Cane, second from right, talking with guests after his lecture on Climate and Society.
Climate events can be predicted and prepared for ahead of time, said Mark Cane in the Earth Institute Science Lecture on Climate and Society on December 3rd, 2003. Switching crop varieties based on anticipated rainfall patterns, or developing the infrastructure to store grain and water supplies in years of overflow, can make all the difference between famine and crisis or business as usual.
In addition to anticipating seasonal and year-to-year climate variability, people can anticipate and prepare for variation in climate across longer spans of time. Long term trends, ranging from an Ice Age to a global warming trend, can mean the difference between agricultural surplus and a thriving economy, or famine, drought, outward migration, and the decline of civilizations. Cane used the examples of the Akkadian and Maya societies, and based on physical and recorded evidence of climate and agricultural data, he said, "the record is that severe climate changes do seem to have a considerable impact on human societies."
While the scientific debate on human-induced climate change continues, there is little doubt that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are now at higher levels than at any other time in the last 500 thousand years.
Cane, who is the G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences, made the first scientific prediction of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon in the 1980s along with Steve Zebiak, now Director General of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI).
Climate effects sometimes combine with existing societal conditions to produce disasters. While El Niño can cause severe storms and natural disasters in the Americas, the effect in Africa and Asia tends toward drought and famine. The 1877-78 El Niño, for instance, was the likely cause of drought and famine in China and India, which combined with policies of the British colonial authorities to result in a public health crisis. As Cane remarked, "You have drought, a weakened population, exposure to disease, and the results are catastrophic."
Similarly, Zimbabwean maize crops have shown severe output shortages in El Niño years. One such year, 1992, was one of the worst drought years in Southern Africa in the last century. Eventually the prospect of impending famine brought emergency aid to Southern Africa and averted a full-blown crisis, but Cane argued that climate events can be predicted and prepared for ahead of time to avoid coming so close to disaster.
Although climate prediction science is still growing in sophistication and accuracy, the scientific advances of the past 20 years have made it possible to prepare contingency plans with advance notice. Climate monitoring has also increased, and the more climate is tracked, the more climate scientists will be able to predict future patterns. The key for policy makers, Cane said, is not only to learn how to apply the current scientific capacity for prediction, but also to establish the political will to prevent disasters.
The Earth Institute at Columbia University is among the world’s leading academic centers for the integrated study of Earth, its environment, and society. The Earth Institute builds upon excellence in the core disciplines—earth sciences, biological sciences, engineering sciences, social sciences and health sciences—and stresses cross-disciplinary approaches to complex problems. Through its research, training and global partnerships, it mobilizes science and technology to advance sustainable development, while placing special emphasis on the needs of the world’s poor.
Mark Cane, G. Unger Vetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Sciences in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University
"The Earth Institute Science
Lectures: Climate and Society"
In the 1980s Mark Cane was the first scientist to accurately predict
the weather phenomenon known as El Niño. Since then, his research
has turned increasingly to climate’s impact on human society
in areas such as agriculture, air pollution, water management and health.
On Wednesday, December 3, Cane will lecture on the lessons humans can
learn from El Niño about adapting to climate variability, and
how these might be applied to broader climate change trends.
Real (47:08):
QuickTime (5:49):