Hazards

Natural disasters—hurricanes, earthquakes, drought, landslides, and others—can have devastating effects on human populations and economies. Studies show these hazards are on the rise. With increasing numbers of people living in crowded cities and other vulnerable areas, it is more important than ever to advance our understanding of natural disasters and the ways in which humans respond to them. Researchers at the Earth Institute strive to deepen the world’s understanding of a range of hazards, from drought to earthquakes to landslides.

Center for Hazards and Risk Research

The mission of the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) is to advance the predictive science of natural and environmental hazards and the integration of science with hazard risk assessment and risk management.  It has a twofold focus: the advancement of predictive capability for hazard and risk, and the integration of core science with techniques for hazard assessment and risk management.  

CHRR infuses the scientific and technological perspective on disasters with a deep appreciation of the social, political, and economic realities of the developing as well as the developed world.  It requires a renewed focus on translating the key scientific concepts of probability and uncertainty into a language and set of rules useful to decision-makers. 

CHRR research includes basic disciplinary research, integrated research which combines social and physical dimensions of hazards, and extension services which provide linkages to policy and management.

  • Natural Disaster Profiles for Indian Ocean Countries
    Profiles for countries in the Indian Ocean have been developed to provide information on sub-national areas at risk from natural hazards including cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, and landslides.  Currently, profiles have been developed for: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Malaysia, Maldives, Seychelles, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Thailand.  In addition to basic geographic and socio-economic facts, most profiles include maps that indicate how specific areas of each country rank according to a global index of risk for each type of disaster. Some maps are weighted by mortality, and others by the proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) impacted. Multi-hazard disaster maps show the combined risk from key hazard groups.

Center for International Earth Science Information Network

The Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) works at the intersection of the social, natural, and information sciences, and specializes in on-line data and information management, spatial data integration and training, and interdisciplinary research related to human interactions in the environment.  The CIESIN mission is to provide access to and enhance the use of information worldwide, advancing understanding of human interactions in the environment and serving the needs of science and public and private decision making.

Social and Environmental Vulnerability Disasters

There is a growing awareness of the need for better measurements and models of vulnerability to natural disasters and for improved management of information that guides the humanitarian response. A collaboration between the Center for Refugee and Disaster Response at the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and CIESIN will bring together the fields of physical science, demography, public health, and informatics in order to develop an integrated approach to disaster assessment that will enhance the understanding of vulnerability and provide information for decision making in the post-disaster context.  The research, which entails modeling population vulnerability and risk in natural disasters, is intended to be used to inform post-disaster assessments of surviving populations by presenting clear visual representations of disaster risk and impact on populations, enabling governments and humanitarian organizations to better locate need and allocate resources in the aftermath of disasters.

Global Natural Disaster Hotspots

Disasters represent a major source of risk for the poor. These natural events can wipe out development gains and accumulated wealth in developing countries.  In 2005 researchers from CHRR, CIESIN and International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), another Earth Institute center, have assessed the global risks of two disaster-related outcomes: mortality and economic losses. Scientists estimated risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk—gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area—for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones.

This research can inform a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term land-use plans and multihazard risk management strategies. A set of accompanying case studies, available separately, explores risks from particular hazards or for localized areas in more detail, using the same theoretical framework as the global analysis.  Scientists hope that in addition to providing interesting and useful results, the Hotspots global analysis and case studies will stimulate additional research, particularly at national and local levels, increasingly linked to disaster risk reduction policy-making and practice.

Global Risk Update (GRU) Program

Since the release of the Hotspots study (above), The World Bank, other regional development banks, and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)—agencies which respond to the catastrophic impacts of natural hazards—have begun to mainstream disaster resiliency into their development programs, which requires a much more detailed evidence base for high-priority regions, such as those that have recently been devastated by natural disasters. 

As an outgrowth of the “Hotspots” study and the growing need for more detailed data products on hazards, researchers from CHRR, CIESIN and IRI partnering with UNDP have embarked on the new Global Risk Update (GRU) program, which aims to fill knowledge gaps in natural disaster risk research. The first GRU maps are due in early 2009, with successive updates released every two years. Like the Hotspots study, the GRU maps will trigger more intense studies of the riskiest places on the planet, and perhaps lead to the types of local pilot programs for hazard preparation and response that demonstrate the human importance and cost-efficiency of increased disaster resiliency.